Assumptions and financing

Revenue

Understand oil benchmarks, non-oil revenue assumptions, finance acts, and the fiscal framework beneath the budget.

Official documents

10

Government documents available for this section.

Questions answered

3

Key questions this section helps you answer about the budget.

Years covered

18

Years of official budget records available on this platform.

Understanding this section

What to look for and why it matters

Questions this section answers

  • Which assumptions hold the revenue side together?
  • How much of the budget depends on oil, taxes, and borrowing?
  • What do MTEF and finance-act changes imply for the next cycle?

Important documents to check

  • MTEF/FSP and fiscal framework papers
  • Finance acts and revenue notes in budget speeches
  • Quarterly implementation reports for revenue performance

Official documents

Government documents for this section

2026 · mtef fsp

2026 - 2028 MTEF & FSP

Official 2026 mtef fsp document from the Budget Office of the Federation supporting Nigeria's revenue, borrowing, and fiscal assumptions. 1 2.0 ECONOMIC AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS ................................ 7 2.5 Fiscal Sector ................................

2.83 MB · 12-17-2025

2025 · executive proposal

2025 Executive Proposal

2025 Executive Proposal is an official executive proposal for 2025. The extracted text references debt service of N9.91T.

6.22 MB · 12-18-2024

2024 · quarterly implementation report

2024 First Quarter Budget Implementation Report

Official 2024 quarterly implementation report from the Budget Office of the Federation covering budget execution, releases, and fiscal performance. 2O24 FIRST QUARTER budget implementation report budget office of the federation Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning ii FOREWORD I am delighted to present to you, the 2024 First Quarter Budget Implementation Report (BIR). The 2024 Appropriation was titled “Budget of Renewed Hope’’.

1.29 MB · 12-06-2024

2025 · mtef fsp

2025-2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework & Fiscal Strategy Paper

Official 2025 mtef fsp document from the Budget Office of the Federation supporting Nigeria's revenue, borrowing, and fiscal assumptions. 1 Budget Office of the Federation / FMB E P 202 5 – 202 7 MTEF/FSP i Budget Office of the Federation / FMB E P 202 5 – 202 7 MTEF/FSP Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................ 1 2.0 Economic and Fiscal DEVELOPMENTS ................................

1.85 MB · 11-15-2024

Where the documents come from

Official sources

Budget Office annual budget pages

Signed acts, appropriation bills, executive proposals, implementation guidelines, budget details, and related annual budget documents.

Source

Annual budget pages confirmed for 2021-2026 in the first ingestion pass.

Quarterly Budget Implementation archive

Quarterly and consolidated implementation reports showing releases, execution, and performance signals across years.

Source

Historic implementation archive confirmed for 2009-2025.

MTEF/FSP and fiscal framework pages

Medium-term expenditure, fiscal framework, and finance-act documents that explain the revenue and borrowing assumptions under each cycle.

Source

Policy-document archive confirmed from 2008 through 2026, including finance-act entries published on the MTEF page.

State House budget speeches

Budget presentation speeches and sign-off remarks that explain priorities, transition issues, and executive framing.

Source

Used as the speech layer for recent-year budget purpose summaries.

Historic budget use

How this has changed over the years

2016

Budget of Change

N6.06T

The 2016 cycle was built as a reset budget: infrastructure restart, agriculture, and social intervention were used to push back against recession pressure.

  • power, works, and housing capital restart
  • agriculture and food security priorities
  • new social investment programme rollout

2017

Budget of Recovery and Growth

N7.44T

The 2017 budget leaned into recession recovery, using capital expenditure to restore growth, support infrastructure, and diversify beyond oil.

  • recession recovery and economic diversification
  • transport, power, and roads projects
  • export, agriculture, and industrial recovery

2018

ERGP Consolidation Budget

N9.12T

The 2018 cycle consolidated the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan with visible emphasis on ongoing capital projects, security, and social intervention.

  • completion of ongoing capital projects
  • security operations and North-East recovery
  • social housing, cash transfers, and school feeding

2019

Budget of Continuity

N8.92T

The 2019 budget largely preserved the project pipeline, emphasizing continuity, completion of inherited infrastructure, and macro stability ahead of transition.

  • completion of roads, rail, and power projects
  • security and recurrent government obligations
  • continuity of agriculture and social programmes

2020

Budget of Sustaining Growth and Job Creation

N10.59T

The 2020 budget opened as a growth-and-jobs budget, then had to absorb COVID-19 shocks, revised revenue expectations, and emergency spending pressure.

  • growth and job creation through capital spending
  • health and pandemic-response adjustments
  • roads, rail, and strategic infrastructure spending

2021

Budget of Economic Recovery and Resilience

N13.59T

The 2021 cycle pushed post-COVID recovery, resilience, infrastructure, and targeted support for jobs, health, and economic reopening.

  • economic recovery and resilience after the COVID shock
  • health, vaccines, and resilience spending
  • infrastructure and employment support

2022

Budget of Economic Growth and Sustainability

N17.13T

The 2022 cycle centered on sustaining growth while carrying heavy security, subsidy, and debt-service pressure into the fiscal framework.

  • economic growth and sustainability measures
  • security and infrastructure allocations
  • continuation of capital and social investment programmes

2023

Budget of Fiscal Consolidation and Transition

N21.83T

The 2023 budget emphasized fiscal consolidation while also funding the election year, transition programme, security, and inherited capital obligations.

  • election-year and transition commitments
  • fiscal consolidation and macro stability
  • ongoing capital projects and security spending

2024

Budget of Renewed Hope

N28.78T

The 2024 cycle used the first full Tinubu budget to push security, job creation, poverty reduction, and infrastructure delivery under the Renewed Hope frame.

  • security, job creation, and poverty reduction
  • transport, power, and infrastructure reset
  • human capital and social support spending

2025

2025 Federal Budget

N54.99T

The 2025 cycle appears geared toward finishing inherited capital obligations while scaling security, infrastructure, health, education, and domestic production support.

  • capital carryover and major infrastructure completion
  • security and macro-stability support
  • health, education, and domestic production priorities

2026

Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity

N68.32T

The 2026 cycle is framed around consolidation, revenue reform, infrastructure expansion, stronger security, ward-level development, and domestic production.

  • infrastructure expansion and ward-level development
  • security strengthening and domestic production support
  • revenue reform, resilience, and shared prosperity goals